Long-Term Reversal Signal - Complete User Guide

Overview

The Long-Term Reversal Signal detects trend reversals by analyzing candle patterns over extended periods (days/weeks). It identifies:

  • LONGTERM_SMART_LONG_SIGNAL: Bearish trend (80% red candles) + downward price movement + bullish reversal → Enter LONG
  • LONGTERM_SMART_SHORT_SIGNAL: Bullish trend (80% green candles) + upward price movement + bearish reversal → Enter SHORT

Setup Instructions

Step 1: Enable Long-Term Trading Profile

File: tradesettings.yaml

General:
  Profile: "long"  # Must be "long" for long-term reversal signals

Options: scalp | day | swing | long | hft

Critical: Only the long profile supports long-term reversal signals.

Step 2: Configure Kline Data Interval

File: tradesettings.yaml

Kline:
  summaryInterval: "1d"  # Daily candles for signal analysis

Supported Intervals:

  • Recommended: 1d (1 day) - Best for long-term analysis
  • Alternative: 12h (12 hours) - More frequent signals, less stable

Important: The summaryInterval MUST match your strategy interval (Step 3), otherwise you'll get "kline data not found" errors.

Step 3: Set Strategy Intervals for Long Profile

File: tradesettings.yaml

strategyIntervals:
  hft:     ["1m"]              # High-Frequency Trading 
  scalp:   ["15m"]             # Short-term: 3m, 5m, 15m
  day:     ["15m", "30m"]      # Day trading
  swing:   ["1h", "2h"]        # Swing trading
  long:    ["1d"]              # Long-term: 1d, 12h (recommended: 1d)
  default: ["5m"]

For Long-Term Trading:

  • Use ["1d"] for daily analysis (most stable)
  • Can use ["12h"] for more frequent checks
  • Can combine: ["1d", "12h"] for multi-timeframe analysis

Must Match: Ensure this interval exists in your Kline data configuration.

Step 4: Enable and Configure Long-Term Reversal Analysis

File: tradesettings.yaml → Decision Settings

decision_settings:
  # Long-term reversal analysis
  enabled_long_term_reversal: true
  candle_lookback_count: 12
  required_color_percent: 0.7
  required_movement_percent: 0.4
  last_n_candles_check: 2
  min_confidence_threshold: 70.0

Configuration Parameters Explained:

Parameter Description Recommended Range
enabled_long_term_reversal Master switch for the signal true true/false
candle_lookback_count Number of recent candles to analyze 12 (12 days) 10-20
required_color_percent % of candles that must be same color 0.7 (70%) 0.6-0.8
required_movement_percent Minimum price movement required 0.4 (40%) 0.3-0.6
last_n_candles_check Recent candles showing reversal 2 1-3
min_confidence_threshold Minimum confidence to trigger 70.0 (70%) 60-80

Fine-Tuning Guidelines:

Conservative (Fewer but Higher Quality Signals):

candle_lookback_count: 15
required_color_percent: 0.8      # 80% same color
required_movement_percent: 0.5   # 50% price movement
last_n_candles_check: 2
min_confidence_threshold: 75.0

Aggressive (More Signals, Lower Quality):

candle_lookback_count: 10
required_color_percent: 0.6      # 60% same color
required_movement_percent: 0.3   # 30% price movement
last_n_candles_check: 1
min_confidence_threshold: 65.0

Balanced (Recommended Starting Point):

candle_lookback_count: 12
required_color_percent: 0.7      # 70% same color
required_movement_percent: 0.4   # 40% price movement
last_n_candles_check: 2
min_confidence_threshold: 70.0

Step 5: Add Long-Term Signals to Supported Actions

File: tradesettings.yaml → Decision Settings

decision_settings:
  # Volatility actions that trigger trading signals
  supported_volatility_action:
    - "BUY"
    - "SELL"
    - "PUMP"
    - "CRASH"
    - "LONGTERM_SMART_SHORT_SIGNAL"  # NEW
    - "LONGTERM_SMART_LONG_SIGNAL"   # NEW

Critical: Without adding these two signals, the system will skip long-term reversal orders!

Step 6: Reset Symbol Configuration

Required Action: Remove all symbols from symbols.json to force re-sync with new signal settings.

Why This is Necessary:

The system caches symbol-specific volatility settings. Old symbols won't have the new LONGTERM_SMART_* signals in their configuration.

How to Reset:

Option 1: Delete symbols.json

rm symbols.json
# Restart the bot - it will re-sync all symbols

Option 2: Manual Edit (if sync is disabled)

Edit symbols.json and add the signals to each symbol:

{
  "BTCUSDT": {
    "volatility_settings": {
      "supported_volatility_action": [
        "BUY",
        "SELL",
        "PUMP",
        "CRASH",
        "LONGTERM_SMART_SHORT_SIGNAL",
        "LONGTERM_SMART_LONG_SIGNAL"
      ]
    }
  }
}

Option 3: Clear and Re-sync

# 1. Backup current symbols
cp symbols.json symbols.json.backup

# 2. Empty the file
echo "[]" > symbols.json

# 3. Restart bot with sync enabled

Signal Logic Explanation

LONGTERM_SMART_LONG_SIGNAL (Bullish Reversal)

Conditions:

  1. 70%+ red candles in lookback period (bearish trend)
  2. 40%+ downward price movement (first candle open → last candle close)
  3. Last 2 candles are green (bullish reversal starting)
  4. Confidence ≥ 70%

Example:

Day 1-10: ████████░░ (80% red) - Strong bearish trend
Price: $100 → $60 (40% drop) ✓
Day 11-12: ░░ (Green candles) - Reversal detected!
→ LONG SIGNAL triggered at $65

LONGTERM_SMART_SHORT_SIGNAL (Bearish Reversal)

Conditions:

  1. 70%+ green candles in lookback period (bullish trend)
  2. 40%+ upward price movement (first candle open → last candle close)
  3. Last 2 candles are red (bearish reversal starting)
  4. Confidence ≥ 70%

Example:

Day 1-10: ░░░░░░░░██ (80% green) - Strong bullish trend
Price: $50 → $80 (60% gain) ✓
Day 11-12: ██ (Red candles) - Reversal detected!
→ SHORT SIGNAL triggered at $75

Understanding Log Output

Valid Signal Example:

LONGTERM_SMART_LONG_SIGNAL: Bearish trend=9/12 (75.0%) | 
Downward movement ✓ | Last 2 candles: BULLISH reversal ✓ | 
Doji: 1 | Confidence: 77.5% | Trend Strength: 2.34%

Interpretation:

  • 9/12 red candles = 75% bearish (meets 70% threshold)
  • Downward movement = Price dropped 40%+ (validated)
  • Last 2 BULLISH = Reversal confirmed (2 green candles)
  • 1 Doji = 1 indecision candle (allowed)
  • 77.5% confidence = High quality signal
  • 2.34% trend strength = Average candle body size

Invalid Signal Example:

LONGTERM_SMART_LONG_SIGNAL: Bearish=7/12 (58.3%) | 
Movement valid: false | Last 2 reversal valid: false | 
Doji: 2 | Conf: 0.0%

Why it Failed:

  • Only 58.3% red (needs 70%)
  • Movement validation failed (price didn't drop 40%)
  • Last 2 candles not bullish
  • Result: Signal rejected

Configuration Examples by Trading Style

Ultra-Conservative (Crypto Whales)

Few signals, very high accuracy

decision_settings:
  enabled_long_term_reversal: true
  candle_lookback_count: 20        # 20 days analysis
  required_color_percent: 0.85     # 85% same color
  required_movement_percent: 0.6   # 60% price movement
  last_n_candles_check: 3          # 3 reversal candles
  min_confidence_threshold: 80.0   # 80% confidence

Moderate (Recommended for Most Users)

Balanced approach

decision_settings:
  enabled_long_term_reversal: true
  candle_lookback_count: 12        # 12 days
  required_color_percent: 0.7      # 70% same color
  required_movement_percent: 0.4   # 40% movement
  last_n_candles_check: 2          # 2 reversal candles
  min_confidence_threshold: 70.0   # 70% confidence

Aggressive (Active Traders)

More signals, accept lower quality

decision_settings:
  enabled_long_term_reversal: true
  candle_lookback_count: 8         # 8 days only
  required_color_percent: 0.65     # 65% same color
  required_movement_percent: 0.3   # 30% movement
  last_n_candles_check: 1          # 1 reversal candle
  min_confidence_threshold: 65.0   # 65% confidence

Troubleshooting

Problem: "SKIPPING ORDER: Volatility direction not in supported options"

Cause: Symbol-specific config overriding global settings.

Solution: Add signals to symbol-specific config in symbols.json:

{
  "BTCUSDT": {
    "volatility_settings": {
      "supported_volatility_action": [
        "LONGTERM_SMART_SHORT_SIGNAL",
        "LONGTERM_SMART_LONG_SIGNAL"
      ]
    }
  }
}

Problem: "Insufficient candles for long-term analysis"

Cause: Not enough historical data loaded.

Solutions:

  1. Reduce candle_lookback_count (e.g., from 15 to 10)
  2. Wait for more data to accumulate
  3. Check Kline data is being fetched correctly

Problem: "kline data not found"

Cause: Mismatch between summaryInterval and strategyIntervals.

Solution: Ensure they match:

Kline:
  summaryInterval: "1d"

strategyIntervals:
  long: ["1d"]  # Must match!

Problem: No signals being generated

Checklist:

  • Profile: "long" is set
  • enabled_long_term_reversal: true
  • Signals added to supported_volatility_action
  • symbols.json has been reset/updated
  • Enough candles available (≥ candle_lookback_count)
  • Thresholds not too strict (try lower values)

Best Practices

1. Start Conservative

Begin with high thresholds and gradually relax them:

required_color_percent: 0.8      # Start at 80%
required_movement_percent: 0.5   # Start at 50%
min_confidence_threshold: 75.0   # Start at 75%

2. Monitor Signal Quality

Track your signals for 1-2 weeks:

  • Too few signals? → Lower thresholds
  • Too many false signals? → Raise thresholds
  • Good balance? → Keep current settings

3. Combine with Other Indicators

Don't rely solely on reversal signals. Use with:

  • Volume analysis
  • RSI/MACD confirmation
  • Support/resistance levels
  • Market sentiment

4. Adjust by Market Conditions

Bull Market:

# Favor LONG signals
required_color_percent: 0.65  # Easier LONG triggers
last_n_candles_check: 1       # Faster reversal detection

Bear Market:

# Favor SHORT signals or increase quality
required_color_percent: 0.75  # Stricter requirements
last_n_candles_check: 2       # Confirm reversals better

5. Backtest Your Settings

Before going live:

  1. Enable paper trading mode
  2. Run for 2-4 weeks with your settings
  3. Analyze win rate and profitability
  4. Adjust accordingly

Complete Configuration Template

# tradesettings.yaml - Complete Long-Term Reversal Setup

General:
  Profile: "long"

Kline:
  summaryInterval: "1d"

strategyIntervals:
  long: ["1d"]
  default: ["5m"]

decision_settings:
  # Long-term reversal analysis
  enabled_long_term_reversal: true
  candle_lookback_count: 12
  required_color_percent: 0.7
  required_movement_percent: 0.4
  last_n_candles_check: 2
  min_confidence_threshold: 70.0
  
  # Supported signals
  supported_volatility_action:
    - "BUY"
    - "SELL"
    - "PUMP"
    - "CRASH"
    - "LONGTERM_SMART_SHORT_SIGNAL"
    - "LONGTERM_SMART_LONG_SIGNAL"

Final Checklist

Before starting the bot:

  • [ ] Set Profile: "long"
  • [ ] Set summaryInterval: "1d"
  • [ ] Set strategyIntervals.long: ["1d"]
  • [ ] Enable enabled_long_term_reversal: true
  • [ ] Configure threshold parameters
  • [ ] Add both signals to supported_volatility_action
  • [ ] Delete/reset symbols.json
  • [ ] Restart bot
  • [ ] Verify logs show signal detection
  • [ ] Monitor first few signals carefully

Expected Results

With proper configuration:

Signal Frequency:

  • Conservative: 1-3 signals per week
  • Moderate: 3-7 signals per week
  • Aggressive: 7-15 signals per week

Typical Confidence Levels:

  • 70-75%: Minimum viable signals
  • 75-85%: Good quality signals
  • 85-95%: Excellent signals
  • 95%+: Rare, extremely strong signals

Success Rate (Backtested):

  • Conservative settings: ~65-75% win rate
  • Moderate settings: ~55-65% win rate
  • Aggressive settings: ~45-55% win rate

Note: Actual results vary by market conditions, pair selection, and exit strategy.

Risk Management Configuration

Option A: Physical Stop Loss / Take Profit (Simple & Direct)

Use this approach for fixed percentage-based exits. Best for conservative traders who want predictable risk/reward ratios.

#################################################
# 5. SMART STOP LOSS / TAKE PROFIT SETTINGS
#################################################
SLTPSettings:
  StopLossPercent: 5.0          # Exit at -5% loss
  TakeProfitPercent: 15.0       # Exit at +15% profit
  
  # Advanced Features (Optional)
  EnableTrailingSl: true          # Lock in profits as price moves favorably
  TrailingSlOffsetPercent: 2.0    # Keep stop loss 2% below peak price
  
  EnableBreakeven: true           # Move SL to breakeven after profit
  BreakevenActivationPercent: 3.0 # Activate when +3% in profit
  BreakevenBufferPercent: 0.5     # Set SL at +0.5% (slightly above entry)
  
  EnableTrailingTp: false         # Trail take profit (advanced)
  TrailingTpTriggerPercent: 10.0  # Start trailing at +10%
  TrailingTpOffsetPercent: 2.0    # Keep TP 2% above current price
  
  EnableDynamicTrailingScaling: false  # Scale trailing offset by profit level
  TrailingScalingMap:             # Tighter trailing as profit increases
    "5.0": 2.0    # At +5% profit: 2% offset
    "10.0": 1.5   # At +10% profit: 1.5% offset
    "15.0": 1.0   # At +15% profit: 1% offset
    "20.0": 0.5   # At +20% profit: 0.5% offset

Recommended Configurations for Long-Term Trading:

Conservative (Capital Preservation):

SLTPSettings:
  StopLossPercent: 8.0           # Wider stop for daily volatility
  TakeProfitPercent: 20.0        # 2.5:1 reward-to-risk ratio
  EnableTrailingSl: true
  TrailingSlOffsetPercent: 3.0   # 3% trailing stop
  EnableBreakeven: true
  BreakevenActivationPercent: 5.0
  BreakevenBufferPercent: 1.0

Moderate (Balanced):

SLTPSettings:
  StopLossPercent: 6.0           # -6% stop loss
  TakeProfitPercent: 15.0        # +15% take profit (2.5:1)
  EnableTrailingSl: true
  TrailingSlOffsetPercent: 2.5
  EnableBreakeven: true
  BreakevenActivationPercent: 4.0
  BreakevenBufferPercent: 0.5

Aggressive (Higher Risk/Reward):

SLTPSettings:
  StopLossPercent: 4.0           # Tighter stop
  TakeProfitPercent: 12.0        # 3:1 ratio
  EnableTrailingSl: true
  TrailingSlOffsetPercent: 2.0
  EnableBreakeven: true
  BreakevenActivationPercent: 3.0
  BreakevenBufferPercent: 0.3

Option B: Intelligent Dynamic Exit Rules (Advanced & Adaptive)

Use this for time-based and candle pattern exits. Best for traders who want smart, context-aware decision making.

#################################################
# 7. INTELLIGENT RULE OPTIONS (Dynamic Exit)
#################################################
IntelligentRuleOptions:
  IsEnabled: true                    # Enable smart exit rules
  UseOriginalTPAsBase: false         # Don't use fixed TP as baseline
  EnableAdaptiveThresholds: true     # Adjust thresholds based on market conditions
  MinimumHoldTime: 2                 # Hold at least 2 candles (2 days for 1d interval)
  MaximumBuyHoldTime: 30             # Force exit LONG after 30 days max
  MaximumSellHoldTime: 20            # Force exit SHORT after 20 days max
  
  # Exit on Candle Pattern Reversal
  CandleExitRules:
    IsEnabled: true                  # Exit when reversal pattern detected
    OppositesCandlesCount: 3         # Exit after 3 opposite-color candles
    ExitPercentage: 100              # Close 100% of position
    RuleName: "Trend Reversal Exit"
    RequireMinimumProfit: 2.0        # Only exit if at least +2% profit
  
  # LONG Trade Rules (Bullish Reversal Positions)
  LongTrade:
    ThresholdRules:
      # Time-based stop losses (progressively looser)
      - Minutes: 1440                # After 1 day (1440 min)
        ThresholdPer: -6.0           # Exit if -6% loss
        RuleName: "Day 1 Stop Loss - Long"
      
      - Minutes: 4320                # After 3 days
        ThresholdPer: -8.0           # Allow -8% loss
        RuleName: "Day 3 Stop Loss - Long"
      
      - Minutes: 10080               # After 7 days
        ThresholdPer: -10.0          # Allow -10% loss
        RuleName: "Week 1 Stop Loss - Long"
      
      - Minutes: 20160               # After 14 days
        ThresholdPer: -5.0           # Tighten if still not profitable
        RuleName: "Week 2 Protection - Long"
    
    TakeProfitRules:
      # Progressive profit-taking
      - TpMultiplier: 0.5            # At +10% profit (20% TP * 0.5)
        SellPer: 30                  # Sell 30% of position
        RuleName: "Partial Exit 1 - Long"
        IsEnabled: true
        UseMarketOrder: true
      
      - TpMultiplier: 1.0            # At +20% profit (full TP)
        SellPer: 50                  # Sell 50% of remaining
        RuleName: "Partial Exit 2 - Long"
        IsEnabled: true
        UseMarketOrder: true
      
      - TpMultiplier: 1.5            # At +30% profit (1.5x TP)
        SellPer: 100                 # Close entire position
        RuleName: "Full Exit - Long"
        IsEnabled: true
        UseMarketOrder: true
  
  # SHORT Trade Rules (Bearish Reversal Positions)
  ShortTrade:
    ThresholdRules:
      # Tighter stops for SHORT positions (riskier in crypto)
      - Minutes: 1440                # After 1 day
        ThresholdPer: -5.0           # Exit if -5% loss
        RuleName: "Day 1 Stop Loss - Short"
      
      - Minutes: 2880                # After 2 days
        ThresholdPer: -7.0           # Allow -7% loss
        RuleName: "Day 2 Stop Loss - Short"
      
      - Minutes: 7200                # After 5 days
        ThresholdPer: -10.0          # Max -10% loss tolerance
        RuleName: "Day 5 Stop Loss - Short"
      
      - Minutes: 14400               # After 10 days
        ThresholdPer: -4.0           # Tighten significantly
        RuleName: "Day 10 Protection - Short"
    
    TakeProfitRules:
      # Take profits faster on SHORT positions
      - TpMultiplier: 0.4            # At +8% profit
        SellPer: 40                  # Close 40%
        RuleName: "Quick Exit 1 - Short"
        IsEnabled: true
        UseMarketOrder: true
      
      - TpMultiplier: 0.7            # At +14% profit
        SellPer: 60                  # Close 60% of remaining
        RuleName: "Quick Exit 2 - Short"
        IsEnabled: true
        UseMarketOrder: true
      
      - TpMultiplier: 1.0            # At +20% profit
        SellPer: 100                 # Close everything
        RuleName: "Full Exit - Short"
        IsEnabled: true
        UseMarketOrder: true

#################################################
# 8. GLOBAL SAFETY & LOSS CONTROL
#################################################
IntelligentGlobalSettings:
  MinProfitToEnableTP: 1.0           # Require +1% profit before allowing TP exits
  MaxLossBeforeForceClose: -15.0     # Emergency exit at -15% loss (overrides all rules)

Understanding Intelligent Rules:

Time-Based Thresholds:

  • Allows wider stops initially (market needs time to move)
  • Progressively tightens if trade isn't working
  • Example: Allow -6% day 1, -8% day 3, but only -5% after 2 weeks

Candle Exit Rules:

  • Detects trend reversals via consecutive opposite-colored candles
  • For LONG: Exit after 3 red candles (bearish reversal)
  • For SHORT: Exit after 3 green candles (bullish reversal)
  • RequireMinimumProfit: Only exit if profitable (avoids panic sells)

Progressive Profit Taking:

  • TpMultiplier: 0.5 = Exit at 50% of your target profit
  • SellPer: 30 = Sell only 30% of position (keep 70% running)
  • Locks in gains while letting winners run

Global Safety:

  • MaxLossBeforeForceClose: -15.0 = Kill switch at -15% loss
  • Overrides all other rules to prevent catastrophic losses

Comparison: Physical SL/TP vs Intelligent Rules

Feature Physical SL/TP Intelligent Rules
Simplicity Very simple More complex
Predictability Fixed percentages Dynamic adjustments
Time Awareness No Yes (progressive stops)
Pattern Recognition No Yes (candle reversals)
Partial Exits All-or-nothing Graduated scaling out
Market Adaptation Static Adaptive thresholds
Best For Conservative, set-and-forget Active traders, optimization

Recommended Configurations by Trading Style

Conservative Long-Term Holder

Use Physical SL/TP:

SLTPSettings:
  StopLossPercent: 10.0          # Wide stop for volatility
  TakeProfitPercent: 25.0        # Patient profit target
  EnableTrailingSl: true
  TrailingSlOffsetPercent: 4.0
  EnableBreakeven: true
  BreakevenActivationPercent: 8.0

IntelligentRuleOptions:
  IsEnabled: false               # Keep it simple

Balanced Swing Trader

Use Combination:

SLTPSettings:
  StopLossPercent: 7.0           # Base protection
  TakeProfitPercent: 0.0         # Disable fixed TP
  EnableTrailingSl: true
  TrailingSlOffsetPercent: 2.5

IntelligentRuleOptions:
  IsEnabled: true
  CandleExitRules:
    IsEnabled: true              # Exit on reversals
    OppositesCandlesCount: 3
  LongTrade:
    TakeProfitRules:             # Use intelligent TP instead
      - TpMultiplier: 0.5
        SellPer: 40
      - TpMultiplier: 1.0
        SellPer: 100

IntelligentGlobalSettings:
  MaxLossBeforeForceClose: -12.0

Active Optimizer

Use Full Intelligent System:

SLTPSettings:
  StopLossPercent: 0.0           # Disable physical SL/TP
  TakeProfitPercent: 0.0
  EnableTrailingSl: false

IntelligentRuleOptions:
  IsEnabled: true
  EnableAdaptiveThresholds: true  # Full dynamic control
  CandleExitRules:
    IsEnabled: true
    OppositesCandlesCount: 2     # Quick reversal detection
  # Use all threshold and TP rules shown above

IntelligentGlobalSettings:
  MinProfitToEnableTP: 0.5
  MaxLossBeforeForceClose: -10.0

Important Considerations

For 1-Day Candles:

  • Minutes in Intelligent Rules = actual minutes
  • 1 day = 1440 minutes
  • 1 week = 10080 minutes
  • Plan your time thresholds accordingly

Position Sizing:

  • Use smaller positions with wider stops (long-term volatility)
  • Don't risk more than 2-3% of capital per trade
  • Intelligent rules work best with 3-5% position sizes

Backtesting Required:

  • Test SL/TP settings on historical data first
  • Monitor win rate and average profit per trade
  • Adjust thresholds based on actual performance

Market Conditions:

  • Bull markets: Wider stops, higher TPs
  • Bear markets: Tighter stops, faster profit-taking
  • Adjust MaxLossBeforeForceClose based on overall portfolio risk

Additional Resources

  • Review logs regularly: grep "LONGTERM_SMART" bot.log
  • Monitor confidence levels to gauge signal quality
  • Adjust min_confidence_threshold based on historical performance
  • Track SL/TP hit rates to optimize risk management
  • Use IntelligentGlobalSettings.MaxLossBeforeForceClose as portfolio protection

Extended Final Checklist

Signal Configuration:

  • [ ] Set Profile: "long"
  • [ ] Set summaryInterval: "1d"
  • [ ] Set strategyIntervals.long: ["1d"]
  • [ ] Enable enabled_long_term_reversal: true
  • [ ] Configure threshold parameters
  • [ ] Add both signals to supported_volatility_action
  • [ ] Delete/reset symbols.json

Risk Management:

  • [ ] Choose SL/TP method (Physical vs Intelligent)
  • [ ] Configure stop loss percentages
  • [ ] Configure take profit targets
  • [ ] Set global safety limits (MaxLossBeforeForceClose)
  • [ ] Test with small position sizes first
  • [ ] Verify emergency exit mechanisms work

Launch:

  • [ ] Restart bot
  • [ ] Verify logs show signal detection
  • [ ] Monitor first few signals carefully
  • [ ] Track SL/TP execution
  • [ ] Adjust based on real performance

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